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Northern Ghawar is in decline
James Hamilton, EconBrowser
If you end up being surprised by the big story of the next decade, you can’t say, “nobody told us.” Instead you’ll have to say, “we didn’t listen.”
Stuart Staniford (Ph.D. in physics) has been conducting a very careful and detailed investigation of all that is publicly known about Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, which is by far the world’s largest and most important oil field. This field has been managed by injecting water below the oil, which causes the remaining oil to rise toward the top of the reservoir where it can be more readily pumped out. The following diagram is an example of the kind of evidence Stuart has looked at to determine how high the water level was at different locations and different points of time.
…Here I have only skimmed the surface of Stuart’s painstakingly detailed analysis. But let me briefly comment on what it means and why he did it. Neither Stuart nor I have a particular agenda here. The Saudis have been deliberately concealing the data that could settle this speculation quite conclusively. And yet, accurate information about what is ahead is absolutely vital in order to help us all make the adjustments and adaptations necessary for what is to come. Stuart observed that nobody had a compelling fix on the facts, even though the story may prove to be one of the most important events of our lifetime. For that reason, he decided that it was worthwhile for someone with his abilities to wade through all the detailed information available to try to form the most accurate picture of where things currently stand.
After Stuart’s monumental research, I really think the burden of proof is on those who claim that Saudi Arabian production can continue to increase. At this point, we need not the conclusions of experts nor the reassurances from Aramco, but hard data to support the claims.
If Saudi production is permanently on the way down, we have just entered a new phase of history.
(15 May 2007)
Stuart’s article, Depletion Levels in Ghawar appeared on The Oil Drum May 14.
The author of this commentary is James D. Hamilton, Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego. He maintains the website EconBrowser.
Ecological Footprint, Energy Consumption, and the Looming Collapse
François Cellier, The Oil Drum
This article explores dynamic relations governing population growth, resource depletion, and world economics by means of a few simple modeling and simulation exercises. To this end, we start out by exploring the concept of an ecological footprint, representing the amount of land that a person needs to produce everything that he or she consumes: food, clothing, energy, shelter, the tools that are needed to make the clothing, etc. and place it in relation with the human development index, a measure of the quality of life of an individual. We then relate the ecological footprint to the per capita energy consumption. This discussion serves to provide a quantitative understanding of the limited resources that are at our disposal.
The article continues by exploring the dangers and seductions of exponential growth, and uses a system dynamics approach to illustrate why we are moving at a rapid pace toward global collapse with our eyes wide shut.
The article ends by discussing what we would need to do in order to avoid the looming collapse.
…How Can The Collapse Be Avoided?
There is an old proverb: when you are already in a hole, stop digging. We have documented that we are already consuming an ecological footprint larger than that provided by planet Earth in a sustainable fashion. Thus, increasing our population further can only hurt us.
In order to avoid the collapse, we need to get out of the exponential growth pattern as fast as we can. We ought to behave as if fossil fuels had already become essentially unavailable, using this precious commodity only for purposes where they are absolutely essential and to help us create a sustainable energy infrastructure for the future.
Such an approach will immediately make us poorer. It will be uncomfortable; but remember, this will happen sooner or later anyway, whether we like it or not, and the longer we continue in our current exponential growth pattern, the more painful the subsequent adjustment will be.
By accepting the transition now, we will make it much easier, because as of now, the fossil fuels are still available to help us cheat. Where a hard transition is too painful, we can make it a soft transition. Where fossil fuels can help us create better living conditions for the future, we can still use them. Finally, by weaning us off our addiction voluntarily now, we prolong the availability of the remaining resources substantially.
It is a bitter medicine, no doubt.
Can we understand its necessity? You bet!
Will it happen? I see no inkling of it.
François Cellier is a specialist in modeling and simulation of physical systems and is teaching system simulation and control at the Institute of Computational Science of ETH Zurich, Switzerland.
(16 May 2007)
More, more, more news
Big Gav, Peak Energy
Big Gav has been serving up some especially good energy-related news lately, with a heavier emphasis on technology, politics and fringe movements than we do at Energy Bulletin.
Based in Australia, Big Gav also watches over the local drought and Australian awareness of peak oil and climate change.
(16 May 2007)
ODAC News – May 16
Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
1/ Coal’s Future in Doubt (Global Public Media [MuseLetter], Wed 09 May)
2/ Congress Told FAA Lacks Road Map For NextGen (AVWeb, Wed 09 May)
3/ China’s Bohai Bay may hold 146 bil barrels oil reserves: report (Platts, Thu 10 May)
4a/ Saudi to boost gas reserves by 40% (Arabian Business, Wed 09 May)
4b/ Saudis to step up natural gas output (The Financial Times, Thu 10 May)
5/ Easy profits herald global oil crunch (The Financial Times, Thu 10 May)
6/ Companies eye Iran’s gas fields (The Financial Times, Thu 10 May)
7a/ Kuwait’s Oil Minister should “Mind His Ps & Qs” (Proven, Probable & Possible – Quantity & Quality) (ODAC, Tue 15 May)
7b/ The Search For Solid Ground On Oil Reserves (Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, Mon 14 May)
8/ The AAPG Oil Reserves Conference, Nov 2006 – How Much Is Left? (ODAC, Fri 11 May)
9a/ Banks are heading for disaster, says Bolton (The Times, Wed 16 May)
9b/ Housing costs taking their toll of society (The Times, Fri 11 May)
10/ What Stern Got Wrong (Prospect, May 2007)
(16 May 2007)
UPDATE: Just posted.
