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Depletion Levels in Ghawar
Stuart Staniford, The Oil Drum
…Saudi oil production has been falling with increasing speeed since summer 2005, and overall, since mid 2004, about 2 million barrels of oil per day in production has gone missing (about 1mbpd in reduction in total production, and about another 1mbpd in that two major new projects, Qatif and Haradh III, failed to increase overall production). That’s 2.5% of world production and, if that production hadn’t gone missing, gasoline in the US likely would still be somewhere in the vicinity of $2/gallon instead of well over $3.
I will analyze six or seven separate lines of technical evidence, and argue they all point to a consistent picture, which says that the answer to both questions is “Yes”. Yes, the northern half of Ghawar is quite depleted. And yes, this probably explains at least part of recent production declines. Furthermore, it is likely that more declines in Saudi production are on the way.
The evidence in question comes from quantitative forensic correlation of hundreds of disparate pieces of data from dozens of technical papers about different aspects of Ghawar. Thus this analysis is very long and detailed – my apologies to the reader. It summarizes 300+ hours of work on my part, and probably similar amounts of work by several other members of the loose Oil Drum coalition investigating Ghawar and (most particularly Euan Mearns, who has posted his own thoughts and Fractional_Flow)
(14 May 2007)
UPDATE May 16: Positive commentary has been posted by James Hamilton at Econbrowser.
Latest presentations from Simmons
Matthew Simmons, Simmon & Co. International
Matthew Simmons has posted some new presentations at his Web site. (PDF)
- The Peaking Of Offshore Oil And Gas: Is The Party Over? Or Just Beginning To Get Exciting?
- 2007 Energy Market Outlook
- Is Hydrocarbon Energy Entering Its Twilight Age? (If So, Can The World Survive?)
(May 2007)
Pointed out by Leanan of The Oil Drum.
Oilwatch Monthly
Your coverage on the latest in the latest worldwide oil production developments
Rembrandt Koppelaar, ASPO-Netherlands
Jerome a Paris introduces the newsletter :
Rembrandt Koppelaar, who writes (alongside yours truly) for the European branch of the Oil Drum, and runs the Dutch branch of the ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil), has started a newsletter (pdf!) which tracks official oil production statistics and turns them into neat graphs. Here are a few, which seem to strengthen CERA’s case for an ‘undulating plateau’ – except that it’s happening right now and not in 30 years’ time…:
[several graphs from Koppelaar’s newsletter]
Only Africa and the Former Soviet Union have seen growth in recent years, and FSU production is now flattening out, as Russian oil companies brought back online the easiest fields after the crash of the early 90s; with the recently regained State control of the sector, investment to boost production does not appear to be the first priority.
Again, the picture is one where ‘we’, the ‘West’, appear to have little control over future supply, and are increasingly in competition with others who also need oil for their own growth/demand. Which points to only one thing: we need to reduce our demand, something we actually control, and that will actually have plenty of positive side effects (less pollution, more good jobs, less need to support dictators around the world and indirectly nurture gangsters with grievances, etc…)
(14 May 2007)
PFC Energy Says There Is Plenty Of Oil
CNBC via YouTube
PFC Energy released a report that oil reserves are plentiful even while they acknowledge that there are fields in production decline such as largest oil field in Mexico (Cantarell). Peak Oil is quickly dismissed towards the beginning of this interview.
(11 May 2007)
Recommended by David Roberts at Gristmill: Peak-a-who?.
Rigged to Blow
James Howard Kunstler, Clusterf*ck Nation
It’s hard to venture around this land and not feel like you are living in something like an obsolete Las Vegas hotel exquisitely rigged for implosion. The massive system that we’ve poured all our national wealth into, and elaborated to the last limits of refinement over half a century, is poised for failure. The prospect is so dreadful that no legitimate authority in politics, business, the news media, or even those cultural outlands of the arts and religion, can bring themselves to express a plausibly coherent view of what happens next to a living arrangement with no future and an economy of no purpose.
The system I refer to, of course, is the car-crazy infrastructure for everyday life, and all the activities supporting it, that most Americans now living regard as the natural and normal medium for human existence, as salt water is the natural and normal medium for squid. The public brings no critical reflection to being in it, and so its failure will eventually come as a deadly surprise — as a red tide surprises the denizens of a tropical sea. When it occurs, the public will not be able to escape from their investments in this way of life. Some may feel swindled, but they will not lose their sense of having been entitled to a happier destiny, so the chances for the acting-out of massive political grievance are high.
(14 May 2007)
Peak Opportunity #2 Too Much Energy is Bad for You
Graham Strouts, Zone5
When introducing the concept of Peak Oil and explaining what implications it will have I like to start with an image of renewable energy, but I suspect that that phrase will conjure up for most people images of photo voltaic panels or wind-turbines rather than a horse. David Holmgren has pointed out that in the 30-odd years PV panels have been being developed, the technology has approached the level of efficiency of plant chloroplasts (somewhere in the region of 20% )- a stunning achievement given that plants have taken millions of years to evolve to this stage. We might guess from this however that this level of efficiency is perhaps the most that will ever be achievable by this technology, and not put too much hope into further leaps in this kind of technology.
Solar panels require both expensive materials and fossil energy in their manufacture. In one sense, putting a solar panel on your roof is really the same as sticking a large barrel of oil on the roof- far from being a source of �free� or even truly �renewable� energy, photovoltaics, like windturbines and many other forms of �renewable energy� are just more efficient ways of using or effectively storing fossil energy. A big question is, when solar PVs come to the end of their life in 20-30 years, will society have the resource to make new ones?
In the long run technology of this kind will always lose out to biological resources like horses which have the capacity to reproduce themselves.
The next issue to really understand deeply is just how dependent we all are on oil.
…Too Much Energy is Bad for You
A major conceptual problem with getting the Peak Oil message across it seems to me is that many people will want to believe that basically the system is fine, it is just the small problem of the oil running out, and because we don�t know exactly when it will run out, there is still this belief in renewables. So I try to emphasize that the problem is NOT that the oil is running out- that is just a geological reality, a certainty that was sure to come to pass eventually as soon as we started drilling over 150 years ago.
The problems are more that: –too much energy is bad for you– it is not so much the availability of energy that is the issue, but what do we use it for? Without oil, we would never have been able to over-fish the oceans or destroy so much of the world�s rainforests. What an extraordinary thing to have been able to achieve! So much of our use of energy is destructive. William Catton calls us homo colossus because energy has allowed us to tread so very heavily upon the earth. This is the opportunity to ask deeper questions: Why do we need so much? What kind of life do we really want?
(14 May 2007)
An Irish permaculturalist explains peak oil in this series.
Peak Oil, Collapse, and the Olduvai
Perry Arnett, Oilcrash.com
…The quality of water, food, crops, soil, air, have all deteriorated during the past 50 years or so and at such a rate, that many parents are today, probably more well nourished than are their kids, and they are probably more well nourished than are their kids!; so that the diminution, and lack of general intellect, self-discipline, will power, delayed gratification, and the increase of antisocial and criminal behaviors, diseases-of-civilization, etc., – all are probably due to fossil-fueled exponential population increase, and the consequent disastrous effects of those populations on the environment.
Those best equipped to survive the coming collapse are those with �mongrel genes�, hardiness to disease, and ruggedness of constitution; – NOT the rich, the privileged, the educated, the well to do! Some few will make it – most will not!
There will be a vast reduction of human populations from present numbers down to something FAR BELOW �carrying capacity�, i.e. LESS than 50 million or so globally, before population numbers begin to rise again to �optimal carrying capacity�.
Lifestyle standards are devolving NOW (as they have for most since ~1979), and they will continue to devolve until within say, five to seven years (2012/2014), when life will be much different for most from what it is today.
… Other relevant writings by Arnett:
www.oilcrash.com/articles/stone.htm www.oilcrash.com/articles/tipping.htm www.oilcrash.com/articles/how_much.htm www.oilcrash.com/articles/coping.htm
(18 April 2007)
Long essay, probably at “Defcon Level 1” (high urgency, high impact).
Here are the ratings for other peak oil sites/sources, according to The Oil Drum:
* Wikipedia (Defcon 5)
* Energy Bulletin (Defcon 4)
* peakoil.com (Defcon 3)
* Robert Rapier (Defcon 3)
* Saintbryan (Defcon 2)
* James Kunstler (Defcon 1)
* Matt Savinar (Defcon 1)
