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Colin Campbell on the Isle of Man
(original: Cretney backs renewable energy plans)
Isle of Man Today
David Cretney, Minister for the Department of Trade and Industry, has said wind farms and tidal projects offer ‘the best potential’ as a renewable energy source for the Island.
Speaking at last week’s Energy Efficiency exhibition at the Villa Marina, Mr Cretney said this was the most appropriate way forward to provide renewable energy on ‘a reliable, cost-effective basis’.
…The first day of the exhibition also included a presentation from Dr Colin Campbell entitled ‘Peak Oil: A Turning Point for Europe’.
Dr Campbell joined the oil industry in 1958 after taking a D.Phil in geology at Oxford University. His career started as a field geologist in Borneo before he moved into regional evaluation and management, ending as an executive vice-president in Norway.
Speaking as a director of ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas) he discussed how the world could prepare for the ‘second half of the age of oil’ which would be marked by the decline of oil, followed by gas and all that depend upon these energy sources.
He said that not many people recognised there was an ‘oil age’ and that the first half was all about growth while the second half was about decline. ‘This transition to decline would be the turning point for mankind’. He said this period would be a ‘time of great tension’.
…Dr Campbell concluded that the world faced a ‘very volatile period in the near future which might find oil prices collapsing again’. He said the decline rate was only 2 or 3 per cent a year but this would continue until ‘a new perception of this subject takes over’.
He talked about the possibility of rationing energy – and of its becoming a kind of currency and added that ‘we need to live differently so we don’t use so much – and cut the waste of energy’.
He added that the renewable energies – tide, wave and thermal – were the way forward but wasn’t convinced about the nuclear option, which had a low net energy yield and emotional connotations.
…He predicted that ‘a new regionalism’ would be the result of this depletion of oil with local economies being more viable than outdated nations.
He concluded: ‘The [Isle of Man] structure as an independent country is an ideal place to lead in this area. It has a local situation and could set an example of how to manage energy efficiently and intelligently.’
(28 Feb 2007)
That cubic mile
Engineer Poet, The Oil Drum
A lot’s been said lately about how much energy is in a cubic mile of oil. This is roughly the amount the world uses in a year. [figure]
Leaving aside some errors (the coal and nuclear numbers are off by about 10% to each other, and the capacity factor of wind turbines should be closer to 30%) the most essential oversight in that equation is elephantine:
It compares oil’s inputs to the other’s outputs.
Compared to that, the rest is small potatoes.
(28 Feb 2007)
Related essay from TOD on the cubic mile concept.
Kunstler critiques urban planning, oil shortage
Alyssa Porambo, The Greyhound (Loyola College student newspaper)
…”Our problems are not just going to go away,” Kunstler warned. “They’re only going to get worse.”
He provided the audience with a brief history of American oil production, recounting that there has been a great decline over the years. Throughout the lecture, he provided background information about the United States’ long history with oil, including statistics concerning imports, exports and usage. According to Kunstler, the peak of oil production in the United States was in 1970. Since then, the nation’s oil production has severely weakened. He claimed that Americans use approximately seven billion barrels of oil per year, and that there are only about 20 billion barrels left in the reserves.
Kunstler claimed that the crude oil that remains is the heavy and sour crude, not the sweet and light crude. The heavy crude is harder to refine and thus creates many problems.
He went on to discuss the resulting energy crisis the nation faces, stating that U.S. political leaders have created a “tremendous fiasco” and an energy-scarce economy.
Throughout the address, Kunstler severely criticized alternative energy sources such as soybean oil, solar power, and hydrogen. He also said that the nation has failing political leadership on both sides of the political scale.
“There will be no ‘hydrogen economy,'” Kunstler said. “No combination of natural substances in the world will run the interstate, Disney World, and Wal-Mart all at once.”
(27 Feb 2007)
The modern-day Paul Revere continues his ride around the country. -BA
