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Roscoe Bartlett: Man on a Mission (text and video)
Bill Moore, EV World
Watching Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on C-Span yesterday afternoon, two things were obvious: he knows how to give a lecture and he’s passionate about the topic of peak oil. He came prepared with charts and graphs and powerful prose, quoting a speech given fifty years ago by Admiral Hyman Rickover.
We’ve featured several of his speeches at various conferences over the last few years here on EV World and I’ve spoken briefly to him on a couple occasions. I’ve even been to his office in Washington, D.C. and met with his press secretary. But this was the first time I was able to talk to him at length.
I began by asking him his sense of the mood in Congress to start working seriously on reducing America’s dependence on oil and climate change.
(26 Jan 2007)
Two Warning Beacons Burning Brightly in the Night Sky, Heralding the Arrival of Peak Oil
Jeffrey Brown (Westexas), email
I have described the certain crash of Cantarell and the near certain (IMO) decline/crash of Ghawar as “Two Warning Beacons Burning Brightly in the Night Sky, Heralding the Arrival of Peak Oil.” These two fields are the two largest producing fields in the world, which account, or accounted, for about 10% of world crude + condensate production.
Oil Prices Settle Above $55 (Associated Press)
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil producer and exporter, was the quickest to implement OPEC’s production cuts; its exports in December were 1.1 million barrels a day lower than before the OPEC’s October call for production cuts.
According to the EIA, the Saudis produced 11.1 mbpd total liquids in 2005, consumed 2.0 mbpd total liquids, and exported 9.1 mbpd total liquids.
Their crude + condensate production for 2005 was 9.55 mbpd (All EIA data).
Their total liquids consumption is growing quite rapidly, up by about 22% from 2004 to 2005.
In any case, let’s assume that the Saudi’s current crude + condensate consumption is about 2.0 mbpd. Their 9/06 crude + condensate production was 9.0 mbpd, which suggests crude + condensate exports of about 7.0 mbpd in September, 2006.
If the captioned news story is reporting crude + condensate, it suggests that Saudi crude + condensate production in December may have been down to about 7.9 mbpd.
It is interesting that we have reports (confirmed for Mexico) of declining/crashing production for both Saudi Arabia and Mexico in December. We have reports that the Saudis are increasing the cuts in crude deliveries to some refineries for February, and Pemex is cutting, or eliminating, crude oil deliveries to Gulf Coast refineries.
(6 Jan 2007)
Durango scientist to debunk ‘myths’
Says predictions about peak oil, global warming overblown
Dale Rodebaugh, Durango Herald
Climate change is real, although the consequences aren’t as dire as predicted. And the fear of oil production peaking and then plummeting is a figment of the imagination, according to a retired scientist.
Roger Cohen, who spent more than 25 years with ExxonMobil Corp. in various capacities, will speak about global warming tonight at Fort Lewis College and about the world’s use of energy Sunday at the DoubleTree Hotel.
“There used to be just global-warming advocates and skeptics, but now there are advocates, skeptics and militants, who are taking to the streets to try to turn the world’s economy upside down,” Cohen said Monday in an interview at his Trappers Crossing home. “The alarmists are distracting us from rational solutions. This is a problem for humanity to manage, not a catastrophe to frighten us into actions we will later regret.”
All the information he will present in his “Modern Myths” talks is available to the public, Cohen said.
Global-warming data often is distorted by experts, and the most ominous predictions are accepted by the media as gospel, Cohen said. For example, some media outlets reported on Dec. 15 that the Earth’s warming trend continued in 2006.
“In effect, last year was preliminarily the coolest in the past five years,” Cohen said. “Statistically, global temperatures have remained static from 1998 on.”
… “Hubbert’s theory fails because it neglects the impact of new technology to find and produce new oil and gas,” Cohen said. “It also fails because it’s not what is underground that counts but what is above ground – the capital to develop reserves and geopolitical conditions such as the stability of governments.”
Peak-oilers are focusing on the wrong things, but the peak-oil theory certainly is popular, resulting in books, blogs and films, Cohen said.
Roger W. Cohen holds a Ph.D. in physics and is the former manager of strategic planning and programs for ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Co. He retired in 2003…
(25 Jan 2007)
Last November, Dr. Cohen proposed convening a panel to investigate how peak oil and climate change are being presented at the local college; he was unhappy at the showing of “The End of Suburbia” and “The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil.” That, to say the least, was a heavy-handed way to encourage free discussion.
If Dr. Cohen has material that disproves global warming and peak oil, could he not post it on the Web? We would be glad to link to it, or post it at EB. So far, his PO arguments seem to be the familiar ones, which have consistently been rebutted by the peak oil camp. -BA
The Ten Fundamental Principles of Net Energy
Cutler Cleveland, The Oil Drum
TOD editor Nate Hagins:
This is a guest post from Cutler Cleveland. The Oil Drum previously highlighted Dr. Clevelands work on the Energy Return from Wind. Todays post is Professor Clevelands latest installment on net energy analysis at the Encyclopedia of Earth, which I have reformatted to theoildrum. The Encyclopedia of Earth, where Prof. Cleveland is an editor/director, has made amazing progress in its short history attempting to become an academic/content based web clearinghouse for information on earth and our environment. I encourage everyone to follow some of the hyperlinks in the below story and peruse that site.
Outside of taxes and profits, we are a society used to thinking in gross terms. But the net is what we get to use. Net energy is how much energy is left for productive purposes after the energy needed to find, concentrate and deliver its energy services are subtracted. Net energy analysis, (and its subset EROI) get alot of airtime in peak oil discussions. If the world is running on a certain total energy surplus, what are the implications for a decline in this surplus? Will the market, via dollars, anticipate or obviate a future constrained by biophysical limits? There seems to be much disagreement as to how best to use EROI and net energy principles, if at all, in tackling what we perceive on the horizon as a looming energy crisis. In this piece, Dr. Cleveland gives and overview of the central tenets of net energy analysis, in a broader perspective that we are used to on this site.
(26 Jan 2007)
A few days ago, we posted a link to the original version of Dr. Cleveland’s article. However, the discussion of the article at The Oil Drum is one of their best yet, and is recommended. -BA
Cornell professor says peak oil could be delayed
Anne Ju, Cornell Chronicle
Peak oil production in the Middle East’s Arabian/Persian Gulf region could be delayed if oil companies would invest more heavily in drilling and extraction technologies and push to explore new sites.
So says Muawia Barazangi, professor of geological sciences in the College of Engineering’s Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. He gave his estimates of the region’s undiscovered oil reserves Jan. 17 at Snee Hall in a talk, “Geologic and Strategic Comments on Oil Resources in the Arabian/Persian Gulf Region,” hosted by the Institute for the Study of the Continents. His comments were inspired, he said, by a recent energy security conference at Cornell.
Using figures and overhead maps to illustrate what he sees as the “huge” amount of oil that has yet to be uncovered in many Persian Gulf countries, Barazangi said he was taking a more optimistic view of so-called “peak oil” (an area’s maximum oil production capability) than have other academic and political analysts. Peak oil is a term that refers to the Hubbert peak theory, which states that oil production tends to follow a bell curve, peaking to a maximum production level, then declining over time.
Opinions vary widely as to when the world will reach peak oil, Barazangi said. Some think it will be within the next 20 years. But he argued that the “exploration story” in the Middle East is not yet complete. Two-thirds of the world’s proven recoverable oil reserves exist in the Persian Gulf, and there are more oil fields to be discovered through offshore and deep-water drilling, as well as more oil to be extracted from existing fields if oil companies would look to new technologies and further exploration, Barazangi said.
“That peak, worldwide, is still way ahead into the future,” Barazangi said. “Oil will still be the main source of energy for the next 50 years, guaranteed — 100 years, quite possibly.” He voiced the opinion that Persian Gulf countries are in the habit of overproducing oil and should cut back on production in order to delay peak oil and better use their resources.
The spirit of debate dominated much of the informal session, as several of Barazangi’s colleagues and other academics took a less optimistic view of Barazangi’s peak oil estimates.
Professor of earth and atmospheric sciences Rick Allmendinger, for example, said that while it may be true the Middle East is not tapping its oil potential fully, it is unlikely that many more “supergiant” oil fields — the largest category — will be discovered.
“You can have a lot more exploration, but it will result in diminishing returns,” he said, commenting that he felt that Barazangi’s estimates about peak oil were “charitably optimistic.”
(24 Jan 2007)
More at the original. An intelligent article.
Peak Oil Passnotes: Oil at $35? It’s Being Said
Edward Tapamor, Resource Investor
…a drop in price to $49.90 or even $35 really does not signify anything as regards ‘peak oil’. Unhappily for those who thought peak oil would bring about overnight collapse of the U.S. and world economy, whenever peak oil arrives – tomorrow or in a hundred years – it will be a far slower and more drawn out process.
One of the central planks of some ‘peak oilers’ intent on collapse Armageddon-style, was the idea that an oil-induced recession would be coupled with ever rising oil prices. We are not yet at that state. Even major ‘peak oil’ proponents like Chris Skrebowski in London, the editor of Petroleum Review, think that any peak will be delayed by some kind of combination of recession and over capacity.
What the downturn in oil really seems to be signalling, is not some kind of magic new world where resources are easy to extract and all the crude reserves in the world magically float to the surface. Instead what the downturn portends, is a period of time ending in recession, eighteen months or two years ahead.
(26 Jan 2007)
