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Revenge of the Shia?
Dave Cohen, The Oil Drum
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is becoming more complicated and riskier all the time. This article primarily discusses Iran’s geopolitical strategy, energy policies and energy predicament. In the final analysis sections, Saudi Arabia’s reactions, in the context of the Iraqi civil war, are discussed. The outcomes are not known but it is not a pretty picture, especially for Japan, China and the EU, which depend on Iranian oil exports. Nor, probably, for the rest of us. …
Conclusion
As the American Iraq quagmire draws to a close, as it inevitably must, the countries of the Persian Gulf region, and their residents, will be left to fend for themselves in a destabilized region. Iran will attempt to take advantage of the situation, given their declining exports and the economic leverage now being applied against them by the United States. I have not touched on the Spring scenario for an Israeli attack on Iran, but that remains a possibility. Such an action would merely accelerate the chain of events outlined here. Iran might even welcome such an attack.
(17 Jan 2007)
Good analysis – better than what I’ve seen in the media. In particular, Dave analyzes the paper by Roger Stern on Iran which has received a spate of publicity. -BA
Getting a Grasp on Oil Production Volumes
Khebab, The Oil Drum
Oil production numbers are often measured in millions of barrels (1 mb= 106 barrels) or billions of barrels (1 Gb= 109 barrels). In the January issue of the IEEE Spectrum magazine, I found this little article: Joules, BTUs, Quads-Let’s Call the Whole Thing Off. They proposed to measure energy quantities in terms of Cubic Miles of Oil (CMO):
1 CMO= 4.17 cubic kilometers= 26.22 Gb (assuming 1 US barrel= 42 gallons)
Last year, the world produced around 26.86 Gb of crude oil + condensate or 1.02 CMO. The figure below gives you an idea of the scale of a CMO compared to the Eiffel tower: [Figure]
…The authors (Hewitt Crane and Ed Ed Kinderman from SRI International) proceed to translate the figures of energy from various sources into one CMO unit: “To obtain in one year the amount of energy contained in one cubic mile of oil, each year for 50 years we would need to have produced the numbers of dams, nuclear power plants, coal plants, windmills, or solar panels” shown on this amazing representation:
…Also check this lecture given by Hewitt Crane: Second set of considerations about the state of the world’s energy supply
(18 Jan 2007)
From the article mentioned by Khebab (Joules, BTUs, Quads-Let’s Call the Whole Thing Off by Harry Goldstein and William Sweet):
The fact that energy sources and uses are stated in so many different kinds of terms is increasingly seen as not merely an annoyance but as a serious impediment to public understanding of critical choices. In an effort to get matters onto a more intuitive, citizen-friendly basis, a number of experts have hit on the convenient fact that the world at present consumes about 1 cubic mile of oil (CMO) per year. Among these experts are Ed Kinderman and Hewitt Crane at SRI International, in Menlo Park, Calif., who are preparing a book for Oxford University Press that will be built around the idea of normalizing all energy units to 1 CMO (4.17 cubic kilometers).
Using cubic miles of oil (CMOs) to describing peak oil makes the concepts much more visual and intuitive than with other units. A colleague explained to me that earth contained an estimated 100 CMOs of oil, that we were close to having used 50, and we were burning through oil at the rate of about 1 CMO/year (I don’t remember the specific numbers, but it was in this range). -BA
Pemex predicts production drop
El Universal
The progressive decline in Mexico´s capacity to produce oil is rapidly becoming more worrisome than the slump in global crude prices.
According to estimates by the state oil company, Pemex, petroleum exports will decline dramatically during the Calderón administration.
Pemex is anticipating a 13 percent drop in its crude exports over the next six years as Mexico´s proven reserves continue shrinking.
Analysts contacted by EL UNIVERSAL agree that Pemex´s inability to increase production is due to waning reserves – particularly the Cantarell field in Campeche Bay which is the source of roughly 60 percent of the nation´s proven reserves – and incapacity to access potential deep-water wells.
The first symptoms of a genuine oil crisis are becoming more and more evident.
(19 Jan 2007)
Pemex faces change or drying up
Dan Grech, Marketplace (NPR)
Mexico’s main source of oil is the Cantarell field. It’s the second most productive field in the world after one in Saudi Arabia. And Cantarell’s running dry.
DAVID SHIELDS: “Cantarell is probably going to decline very sharply in the next three years, starting now.”
That’s energy analyst David Shields, author of two books on Pemex.
SHIELDS: “Mexico currently produces just under 3.3 million barrels a day. We can expect production to fall to 2.5 million barrels a day, or perhaps even less next year.”
Contributor Jeffrey J. Brown writes:
The Ghawar Field, in Saudi Arabia, and the Cantarell Field, in Mexico, are the two largest producing fields in the world.
In my opinion, both fields are in terminal decline, and in my opinion the only real difference (other than production rates) between Saudi Aramco & Ghawar and Pemex & Cantarell is that Pemex, unlike Saudi Aramco, has grudgingly admitted to the decline of its largest producing field.
If Ghawar is in decline, every field that is now producing, or once produced, one million barrels per day (mbpd) or more worldwide is in decline or crashing. According to the Oil & Gas Journal, the only new mbpd field and larger field on the horizon is the problematic Kashagan Field, which is expected, at best, to hit one mbpd or more around 2020, and which is expected, at best, to not even start producing until after 2010.
Historically, when all of the largest producing fields in a region have peaked and started declining, the region has peaked and started declining.
(19 Jan 2007)
