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Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
Interview with Tom Whipple (audio)
original headline: “Down To The Last (Cheap) Drop”
George Kenney, Electric Politics
…The idea that oil is going to get scarce, soon, otherwise known as Peak Oil, has been around for decades but only in the last several years has it caught the attention of a significant minority in the energy business. It’s difficult, still, to find a non-scientist or non-engineer who can speak clearly to the facts, even more so to find one who can who hasn’t become a catastrophist, and next to impossible to combine the above in somebody with sure knowledge of the policy process.
So I got lucky, I think, to talk with Tom Whipple, a retired senior CIA analyst, who’s not only an expert on energy, particularly petroleum, but who has a big-picture, pragmatic grasp of the problem. Tom talks sense without minimizing the dangers. For more from Tom see his regular column on Peak Oil in the Falls Church News Press and the newsletter he edits for ASPO-USA. His is an important message, please take heed. Total runtime of one hour and six minutes.
(22 Dec 2006)
UPDATE: Added this late-breaking article to the existing Peak Oil headlines. I’m only part-way through the interview, but it sounds like a good one
Interviewer George Kenney was a member of the U.S. foreign service and now runs the Electric Politics website.
Second UPDATE: A very dense interview, with lots of information. After the interview concluded, George Kenney had a sobering commentary:
Years ago when I was the desk officer for oil security at the State Department during the First Gulf War, the strong consensus in government was that over the long haul we’d have plenty of petroleum. I no longer believe that’s true.
And while I’m still somewhat agnostic about the timing of the peak, I must say I see no way around it. Peak oil – just another one of those awful facts of life that insistently intrude. Except peak oil might have the potential, as Tom [Whipple] says, to affect things on a cataclysmic scale, perhaps even, in conjunction with other pending disasters, of human extinction.
But then, by nature I’m an optimist and I do expect we’ll muddle through, but it ain’t gonna be easy and – you’d better believe it – we ain’t in Kansas anymore.
I’d also note just to underscore the point that peak oil changes the basic equation for many, many other things. And I expect that fairly soon the paradigm will start to crop up in foreign and defense policy, as well as domestic political priorities. There’s a lot of new ground there to work for people with imagination.
-BA
Desperately shrinking BigOil: returns without oil
Jerome a Paris, Daily Kos
EnCana, a mid-sized player in the North American oil&gas business (with about 700,000 boe/d of production, mostly gas in Canada, it is about one seventh of the size of ExxonMobil; same thing with its approx. $50 billion market cap) has posted late last week some financial guidance for next year, i.e. their estimate of future income and results.
Boy, it makes for depressing reading.
…to sum it up:
Big Oil is shrinking.
It is not finding places where to invest to increase production despite record prices, and is in the process of decommissioning itself slowly, returning its capital to investors.
Peak oil is already in the past for these guys.
(18 Dec 2006)
The Report On Oil Depletion
Ronald R. Cooke, The Cultural Economist
Of all the issues we confront in the 21st Century, resource depletion promises to have the greatest impact on our economic and cultural destiny. And of our dwindling resources, none will have a greater impact on our future than the decline of oil and natural gas production.
Ronald R. Cooke’s Report On Oil Depletion is now available as a free document at
http://www.oildepletion.blogspot.com.
This research report provides a comprehensive examination of oil reserves and production, analyzes the economic impact of two alternative oil depletion scenarios, and outlines a set of recommendations to enable a “soft landing”. World oil production and consumption are evaluated by geographic region. This evaluation, along with a projection of how oil depletion could influence inflation, unemployment, economic growth and the price of gas, is presented in multiple tables, charts, and pictures.
Contents:
- Chapter 1, The Inevitable Crisis
- Chapter 2, Context and Opinion
- Chapter 3, Reserve Data Analysis
- Chapter 4, Evaluation Tools
- Chapter 5, The Optimists
- Chapter 6, High Probability
- Chapter 7, Perspective
- Chapter 8, Recommendations
- Chapter 9, The 12 Criteria
- Chapter 10, Lifestyle
- Chapter 11, The Question
(11 Nov 2006)
Why do global warming and peak oil skeptics speak out against their own economic interests?
Travis Daub, Passport (Foreign Policy blog)
If I were a scientist, and I knew that global warming and the oil crisis were only flukes, I’d keep my mouth shut. Why? Because there is money to be made when you know something to be true that no one else believes. Here’s my three step plan for getting wealthy fast, if you think that global warming is a hoax.
(22 Dec 2006)
Interesting – a voice for peak oil on the Foreign Policy editorial staff. “Burrow from within,” as they say. -BA
UK Soil Association conference focuses on peak oil
One Planet Agriculture: Preparing for a post-peak oil food and farming future
UK Soil Association
World experts on climate change, sustainable agriculture and peak oil will be speaking at the Soil Association’s annual conference 2007, One Planet Agriculture: Preparing for a post-peak oil food and farming future. Farmers, consumers and local communities alike will be provided with unique insights and practical, positive solutions to these increasingly crucial issues.
[The Soil Association conference will take place at the Cardiff International Arena on 26 and 27 January 2007.]
Secretary of State for Agriculture, David Miliband laid down a challenge to UK farmers at the Royal Show 2006 (3 July) reflecting on the World Wide Fund for Nature’s calculation that ‘we are living as if we had three planet’s worth of resources to live with, rather than just one.’ Miliband challenged UK farmers to develop,
One planet farming as well as one planet living – one planet farming which minimises the impact on the environment of patterns of food production and consumption, and farming which maximises its contribution to renewal of the natural environment.
Patrick Holden, director of the Soil Association said,
David Miliband challenged UK farmers to deliver ‘one planet agriculture’ – organic farming offers a practical blueprint. But if we are to turn around 60 year’s worth of energy intensive industrial agriculture and ‘just in time’ food distribution systems, individuals and communities need to be given the tool-kit to create low-energy, re-localised food economies. That’s what this Conference will provide.
Like most people, I’m frustrated by political rhetoric on climate change. I’ve wasted too much time lobbying transient ministers. That’s why the Soil Association is focusing its energies on providing practical measures for community and citizen action at the grassroots level.
It is no exaggeration to say we need a ‘wartime mobilisation’ in terms of attitudes to, understanding of and solutions for post-peak oil food and farming. Unless we can deliver real change in the UK, we have no moral authority to lecture developing countries not to proceed down the same destructive road of agricultural industrialisation still dominant here.
Speakers include leading experts on peak oil and climate change, Colin Campbell and Jeremy Leggett. The chair of the government’s Sustainable Development Commission, Jonathon Porritt, will set out what David Miliband’s challenge means in practice. Internationally renowned environmentalist, Vandana Shiva will make the links between North and South, as well as emphasising the need for localisation to counter the disastrous impacts of unrestrained globalisation.
Zac Goldsmith, editor of The Ecologist magazine will be joining a question time panel, along with Hugh Fearnley Whittingstall. Zac will also be compering an organic, fashion show at the pre-conference reception in which TV celebrity Donna Air and other models will catwalk against climate change showing off a selection of stunning organic outfits.
(22 Dec 2006)
The Soil Association is the “UK’s leading campaigning and certification organisation for organic food and farming.”
On the other side of the globe on Jan 24-27, there will be a similar conference with a similar theme. The Eco-Farm conference in Asilomar, California, will have peak oil writer Richard Heinberg and agro-ecologist Miguel Altieri as its lead speakers It sounds as if Heinberg’s talk will be based on his recent essay, Fifty Million Farmers.
-BA
Dr. Jerry Unruh – interview
Robert Rapier, The Oil Drum
…First of all, let me introduce Jerry. He is a Ph.D. chemist that I met 11 years ago when we both worked on butanol research and technical support for Celanese Chemicals. While I was certainly aware of Peak Oil (I had mentioned it in my graduate thesis), Jerry was the first person who convinced me that the smooth transition to biofuels that I envisioned at that time was highly questionable, and that things might not turn out so well… Jerry makes around 300 contacts a year with government officials (congress, federal agencies, etc.) in his role as an advocate.
…RR: So, when is world oil production going to peak?
JU: We may be at peak right now, but I would say definitely within 10 years.
RR: So, what will the world look like 30 years from now?
JU: If we used wisdom, we could potentially transition from fossil fuels. We could have more livable cities, public transports, electricity from renewable sources powering PHEVs, and household electricity being produced by a combination of solar power and stationary hydrogen. However, it is not clear that we have the wisdom, in which case I see more wars and widespread starvation.
…RR: Speaking of the government and Big Oil, what do you think the new Democratic congress is going to do differently?
JU: Well, first off I think there will be less pressure to drill in environmentally sensitive locations. I think we have a real shot at some climate change legislation, but I also expect Bush to start using his veto power with more regularity. I hope to see higher efficiency standards, higher CAFE standards, and more support for renewables. One wild card is the greenhouse gas case before the Supreme Court. It appears to me that the language is clear that the EPA could and should regulate GHGs. I am cautiously optimistic that the Supreme Court will vote in favor, and this could make a real impact in our fight against Global Warming.
(21 Dec 2006)
Peak Oil and The Energy Utilization Chain (EUC)
Dr. Doug Reynolds, The Oil Drum
It has often been cited how economics does not incorporate or look at physics and biology when it comes to sustainability issues. However it can also be said that physicists and biologists have failed to recognize economics when it comes to studying Peak oil or how to adapt to Peak oil. One of the more interesting dimensions in the discussions of net energy analysis is the Energy Utilization Chain (EUC). Instead of looking only at the net energy from say the oil well to the car wheel (well to wheel), it is important to also look at the energy service itself. You can have a wheel on a car, but you can also take a train or develop other forms of transportation that can use high net energy sources. In economics, this is called substitution and the degree of that substitution is called the elasticity of substitution.
However, the problem from the economics side is that economists are quick to say that substitution is possible, which gives the appearance that the economists–the Julian Simon’s Ultimate Resource crowd–have won the day. But they then fail to consider physics and the entropy law. For example if the net energy for an alcohol fueled car is low, then just use a coal fired steam locomotive train instead or use nuclear power to run electric trains. But if that is your substitute you need to ask, how many railroad tracks and electric corridors are you going to need to build, to replace all the automobiles you have? Such infrastructure would take a long time to build, but more than that it would also require a lot of energy. Thus the net energy of the EUC from in-situ energy source all the way to the energy service is important.
…Other economic issues besides this must also be included into concepts of the Hubbert curve. Many such economic concepts can be read in my book, “Scarcity and Growth Considering Oil and Energy: An alternative neo-classical view.”
Dr. Reynolds is an associate professor of oil and energy economics at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
(22 Dec 2006)
