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Peak-oil theory and its development implications
Peter J. Cooper (editor), AME Info FZ (“Middle East Finance and Economy”)
Denying the idea that Middle East oilfields are getting old and might soon go into decline has become an article of faith in local oil circles. But re-reading the controversial main text of the peak-oil theorists should perhaps be required by regional economic planners.
The most controversial book of the decade concerning the Middle East is not to do with religion or terrorism. It is Matthew Simmons book ‘Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy’.
However, like most controversial tomes its message has been so distorted and taken out of context that important points are overlooked
…any notion that the peak oil theory means a financial disaster for the Middle East and an end to energy production is actually refuted in the controversial book that caused all the fuss in the first place. Clearly the main problem of peak-oil would be for the consumer nations faced with a sudden escalation of oil prices and an energy crisis of major proportions.
…If Mr. Simmons is right and there is little additional oil and gas to be found in the Middle East and the present oil and gas fields are in a state of advanced maturity, then the implications for development are profound.
For the rapid transformation to integrated economies with strong service industries within a globalized economy is the only future economic scenario that will support a rapidly growing population base. Fortunately this is the economic policy being pursued by most Middle East countries at the moment but it could be fine tuned if more data was made available about oil production and the outlook.
(27 May 2006)
Submitter Jeffrey J. Brown writes: “This editorial would seem to hint at the possibility of curtailing oil production, in order to maximize the life of the reserves and in order to maximize the price per barrel)
Is peak oil pure fiction?
Nicholas Wilson, ITP Business
Prices have tripled in two years to over US $70 a barrel and there’s talk of $100 by the year end, so the energy world is doing what it usually does at times like these—talking about oil running out and global economic chaos.
If one listens to it for long enough one could be forgiven for thinking that soon we’ll all be riding donkeys.
Despite the apocalyptic forecasts we are not running out of oil and gas.
(9 June 2006)
Contributor David Emanuel writes:
As usual, the apparently infallible and almighty gods of science, technology, and markets will save the day and generate a glorious future at a slightly higher price. And peak oil is erroneously characterized as “the end of hydrocarbons in a decade or so.”
Interview with Ran Prieur
Burn the Furniture
Burn The Furniture (BTF) : The “slow crash” scenario you describe in How to Survive the Crash and Save the Earth, has much in common with possible events described in James Howard Kunstler’s The Long Emergency. The “intentional communities” Thom Hartmann advocates in The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight are closely akin to your “multi-skilled well-balanced cooperative groups.” …
Ran Prieur: I’ve never read any Thom Hartmann, although I do think “The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight” is the best book title ever. And I’ve only read the condensed version of The Long Emergency in Rolling Stone, and that was after I wrote The Slow Crash. I think the crash is going to be slow because when you look at history you see collapses that take decades or centuries. The place you see overnight crashes is in fiction.
Probably my biggest influence in the social/political area is Ivan Illich. Reading Ivan Illich is like looking at the sun — he’s so smart you can only take a couple sentences and then you have to look away and think. Tools for Conviviality is a good one to start with. He’s not anti-civilization, but his critiques of industrialization and modernity are much deeper than just “we’ll use up all the energy.” When you’ve digested some Illich, or even Daniel Quinn, the whole peak oil movement seems only accidentally relevant. They’re focused on one tiny aspect of the unsustainability of Empire, that it runs out of energy — as if with infinite energy it could keep going forever. I’ve come to believe it’s unsustainable on a metaphysical level. The one idea that’s influenced me most is in Jerry Mander’s book In The Absence of the Sacred: that the correct biological metaphor for “progress” is not evolution, but inbreeding! We replace what we find with what we make, so we’re just burrowing deeper into a world of our own creation.
…BTF: To “Learn Skills,” you suggest, is one of the best ways to prepare for the crash. Everything from food preservation to mechanical repair can be found on your list of practical talents. What sources can you recommend for acquiring this kind of knowledge. What books or classes have you found particularly beneficial?
RP: Everyone’s path is different. You’ve got to start with what you like to do. Even with things you need to do, like learning to make meals from scratch, the way to learn is to make what you like to eat. Then, when you come to something you don’t know, you’ll be motivated to find a source for that information, or innovate. This is the way humans naturally get good at things. But because we’ve all been broken by the schooling system, we start with what we think we’re supposed to learn, and then go looking for the “teacher,” someone or something to fill our heads while we sit passively. That will get you there, but you’re much stronger if you make your own path.
(25 May 2006; HT David Emanuel)
It’s good to see mention of the late Ivan Illich. For essays and more, see Ran Prieur’s website. The essay “How to Drop Out” looks interesting. -BA
Kossack: My Peak Oil OpEd
aprichard, Daily Kos
…I wrote the following oped on peak oil for my local paper. They printed it but did not post it on their website (I shortened and edited it slightly for Daily Kos).
…What will be the effect of declining global oil production? In the short term it will lead to volatile but increasing oil prices, supply disruptions, economic decline, and more resource wars. In the long-term we will have to find ways to live with lower energy consumption. This means more local agriculture with fewer petrochemicals, more local industry, increased alternative energy use, and limited mobility. Our future standard of living will largely be determined by our ability to do more with less energy.
The transition to a post-oil economy will take at least a decade and cost trillions of dollars. Time and money we may no longer have. It is imperative that we use our current energy wealth to make the transition to an alternative energy economy. We cannot afford to burn all the cheap oil without making real progress toward this goal.
(10 June 2006)
Has oil peaked? Not yet
We have at least 30 more years to find alternatives to petroleum
Ronald Bailey, Dallas Morning News
[Quotes Deffeyes, Simmons, Campbell and James Schlesinger on peak oil]
…The good news is that peak oil doomsters are probably wrong that world oil production is about to decline forever. Most analysts believe that world petroleum supplies will meet projected demand at reasonable prices for at least another generation.
The bad news is that much of the world’s oil reserves are in the custody of unstable and sometimes hostile regimes.
…One day, the oil age will end. As with all resources, there is ultimately a finite supply of oil. So it is not yet clear how the world will power itself for the bulk of the coming century. But we have at least three more decades to find alternatives to petroleum.
“Trusting markets is the only way we can assure energy abundance in the future,” notes the University of Houston’s Mr. Economides. “It’s also the only way that we will ever transition to something other than oil and gas.”
Ronald Bailey, the science correspondent for Reason magazine, is author of “Liberation Biology: The Scientific and Moral Case for the Biotech Revolution” (Prometheus). This essay was adapted from a longer version available online at www.reason.com.
(11 June 2006)
Bailey’s argument in a nutshell: US Geological Survey – IEA – CERA – “Trust the markets.”
For a science writer and advocate of “reason”, Bailey has surprisingly little analysis in his argument. It mostly seems to be quoting authorities and reiterating his faith in markets. On the other hand, Bailey seems to know the peak oil writers and admits there will be an eventual peak. Interestingly, in testimony before the Senate this week, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan (with a similar ideology to Bailey’s) expressed serious worries about energy supply. -BA
New Edition of ‘The Oil Age’ Poster Released
SF Informatics / Global Public Media
Updated chart features latest peak oil projections, new data on coal and natural gas; “it’s superb” says leading petroleum expert.
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San Francisco, Calif. (PRWEB) June 9, 2006 — SF Informatics today announced the release of a new edition of its popular poster, The Oil Age, featuring the latest forecasts of peak oil — the all-time maximum of world petroleum production — and new data on coal and natural gas supplies. With prices at the pump surging to record highs and unrest in oil-producing regions threatening to squeeze crude supplies, the poster offers students, educators and journalists a clear and comprehensive view of the global energy dilemma.
“We’re ecstatic about this new peer-reviewed edition,” said Richard Katz, spokesman for SF Informatics (SFI), the California-based group that has produced the poster in association with Global Public Media. “It’s loaded with the most recent oil-production estimates, thought-provoking new insights into coal and natural gas, and a wealth of historical annotations that will help citizens and decision-makers understand the volatile post-peak era we’re about to enter.”
Reviewers of the new poster included Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review, board member of the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC). “I’ve taken a close look at the chart and find that it encapsulates all you need to know in one, visually dramatic, place. It is a superb production,” he said.
Skrebowski’s estimate of the peak date is displayed in the new edition, along with those of oil geologist Colin Campbell, investment banker Matt Simmons, Princeton professor Kenneth Deffeyes, Iranian oil executive A.M.S. Bakhitari, Caltech vice-provost David Goodstein, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Shell Oil, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Estimated dates range from the year 2005 to after 2020.
In a new section, the poster explores the challenges of turning to coal and natural gas to offset diminishing oil flows, and displays sobering new projections from geophysicist Jean Laherrere. Reviewer Julian Darley, author of High Noon for Natural Gas, says the poster will inform the growing debate around the lightest of the fossil fuels. “Natural gas may turn out to be the weakest link in North America’s — and even the world’s — energy infrastructure,” he said.
First released last summer, the colorful, data-rich chart has become a popular tool for spreading awareness of the imminent oil peak. To date, more than 2,000 posters have been donated to teachers worldwide, and with the help of Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, the poster has been distributed to every member of Congress. Citizens groups in San Francisco recently used the poster to help persuade city lawmakers to pass the nation’s first major municipal peak oil resolution (www.oilposter.org/res.pdf)
Copies of The Oil Age poster can be purchased at www.oilposter.org. For more information about the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC): www.odac-info.org
(9 June 2006)
