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Olduvai revisited 2008
Luís de Sousa, The Oil Drum: Europe
Foreword
My first post at TOD was published by Heading Out about 2 years ago on this same subject. Some rather naïve forecasts were made back then, without exactly addressing the main subject: can Mankind avoid the Road to the Olduvai Gorge? This is a first try in answering that question. …
Introduction
The Olduvai Gorge Theory was first laid out by Richard Duncan in 1989, when he observed that world energy per capita had been declining for a decade. He developed the concept of Electrical Civilization, the way of life made possible by widespread and abundant electricity and set it to the period in which world energy per capita is above 30% of its all-time peak. The Theory was postulated it in the following way:
- Industrial Civilization can be described by a single pulse waveform of duration X, as measured by average energy-use per person per year.
- The life-expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than one-hundred (100) years: i.e., X < 100 years.
(28 February 2008)
Summit reveals Abu Dhabi as world leader in race for future energy solutions
AME Info
The first World Future Energy Summit, which took place in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) last month, has firmly established this small Gulf emirate as a world leader in the increasingly urgent race to find innovative solutions to the coming energy crisis.
…Delegates heard top oil company executives arguing for massive investment in technologies like solar power, while an advocate of nuclear power from the UK described such renewable energy solutions as ‘marginal’. The development of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) was hailed by oil producers – and some environmentalists – as offering a clean new future for hydrocarbons, but dismissed by Greenpeace as a ‘false hope’. And Bodman, while warmly endorsing a variety of alternative energy options, devoted much of his intervention to urging OPEC to hike oil production.
However, within this extensive scope of opinion – often robustly expressed — the summit revealed broad agreement – inconceivable only a few short years ago – that hydrocarbon production must be both radically reformed and heavily supplemented by a whole portfolio of alternatives. This new consensus is recognition of the radical urgency of the twin crises facing us in the 21st century: climate change, and peak oil coupled with rapidly rising energy demand.
(28 February 2008)
AME Info is (in its words) “The ultimate Middle East business resource.”
Oil could reach $300, says expert
Claire Ferris-Lay, ArabianBusiness.com
Oil prices could top $300 per barrel within the next five years, according to one industry expert.
Matthew Simmons, chairman and founder of specialised energy investment banking firm, Simmons & Company International, said the current highs of $100 per barrel are “cheap”.
“I think the supply is showing some very troubling signs that we might well have already peaked and started [to slow] down. If we haven’t, we are very close to it,” he told Arabian Business.
(28 February 2008)
A National Dialogue on Energy Security:
The Shell Final Report (20-page PDF)
Shell Oil Company
In the summer of 2006, in the aftermath of accusations of “excessive prices and profits,” Shell embarked on a journey to meet with thousands of Americans in 50 cities across the U.S. in A National Dialogue on Energy Security. As you may recall, you were invited to attend one of the town halls.
Our goal was to help build a better understanding about energy security in the United States and to listen to what Americans had to say about the future of energy in our country. By listening, we were able to gather diverse perspectives from a cross-section of people. The input we received was always informative, often insightful, and at times, compelling.
Today, at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Institute for 21st Century Energy in Washington, D.C., I presented highlights of what became known as the “50-City Tour.” I shared why Shell conducted the tour, what we learned and what all of us, as a nation and as individuals, need to do to ensure energy security for the future.
I am pleased to share with you A National Dialogue on Energy Security: The Shell Final Report, available online at www-static.shell.com/static/us-en/downloads/energy_security/pdf/shell_final_report.pdf (PDF)
I hope you find this report to be interesting and informative-and that it motivates you to become actively involved. There is much that needs to be done. During this election year, ask your candidates about their stands on energy security in the short, medium and long term-and push them to commit to comprehensive energy solutions that make sense for our economy and the environment.
The course our country ultimately chooses is in the hands of Americans who participate in the electoral process. I encourage you to help bring energy security to America-by continuing the dialogue.
Please visit www.usenergysecurity.shell.com for more resources on energy security and to learn more about our outreach efforts. In addition, visit www.shell.com/us/energizeyourfuture to understand how we’re reaching out to students and teachers in support of energy education.
John D. Hofmeister
President, Shell Oil Company
(February 2008)
The text above was sent out in an email on Feb 14. Contributor DL says that peak oil is mentioned several times in the second half of the report. (I’m too sleepy right now to pick the references out for posting…)
Shell is a funny case. They seem to be one of the more reasonable oil companies, having done the best outreach program of all the oil companies. Last year it seemed like every week or so, Shell president Hofmeister gave a talk or wrote an article.
I’ve listened to a couple of Hofmeister’s talks, and he is a good communicator. (Also see recent remarks by Shell head Jeroen van der Veer.)
It’s hard to say, but like many of the oil companies, Shell seems to be slowly moving towards a peak oil position, though they are not waving flags about it.
They are not yet on board about re-localization, etc., and of course they still have their own business interests to pursue. But they are not opposing peak oil the way that Exxon used to oppose the idea of global warming.
Their public relations messaging is subtle and very well done. It’s a difficult PR problem they face, and they have some of the best PR people in the business.
-BA
